Simple Harmonic Motion and Presidential Politics

Prediction: The winner of the 2008 presidential election will be a Democrat.

Years ago, I was riding in a car back to Michigan with a friend of mine and his dad discussing the current state of American politics. While I don’t remember the exact topic, I do remember my friend’s dad’s describing how the political scales tipped back and forth between the two parties in relation to the length of time they’ve spent in office. Basically, the American populace will tolerate political hegemony for only so long, until the pendulum shifts too far in one direction that the opposite side combines with disenfranchised moderates to swing it back the other direction.

Since the introduction of term limits after FDR, the political landscape has looked like this: Truman (Democrat, 8 years) – Eisenhower (Republican, 8 years) – Kennedy/Johnson (Democrat- 8 years) – Nixon/Ford (Republican, 8 years) – Carter (Democrat/Ass Hat, 4 years) – Reagan/Bush (Republican, 12 years) – Clinton (Democrat, 8 years) – Bush (Republican, 8 years).

With the exception of the Republicans lucking into an extra term after totalitarian fellate Jimmy Carter’s run in the late seventies, three quarters of the last century have been split neatly into periods of 8 years divided between the parties. So, now the question remains: Will the trend remain intact through the next election cycle?

Judging from this article – Party Unfaithful: the Republican Implosion – in the New Yorker, the answer is a definite “maybe.” Citing the rifts in the Republican Party by setting the Bush/Rove school against Gingrich, Goldberg provides plenty of material that would seem to support a Republican loss of the Executive Branch next election.

Rove starts by punching Joel Osteen right in the face, while still attempting to steal his base:

“As baby boomers age and as they’re succeeded by the post-baby-boom generation, within both of those generations there’s something going on spiritually—people saying it’s not all about materialism, it’s not all about the pursuit of material things. If you look at the traditional mainstream denominations, they’re flat, but what’s growing inside those denominations, and what’s growing outside those denominations, is churches that are filling this spiritual need, that are replacing sterility with something vibrant, something that speaks to the heart of the individual, that gives a sense of purpose.”

Gingrich fires back:

“Let me be clear: twenty-eight-per-cent approval of the President, losing every
closely contested Senate seat except one, every one that involved an incumbent—that’s a collapse. I mean, look at the Northeast. You can’t be a governing national party and write off entire regions.” For this disarray he blames not only Iraq and Hurricane Katrina but also Karl Rove’s “maniacally dumb” strategy in 2004, which left Bush with no political capital. “All he proved was that the anti-Kerry vote was bigger than the anti-Bush vote.”

What’s left to complete this article? According to last post’s formula, non-sensical ramblings from an irrelevant ass-clown! Ladies and gentlemen, I present you Tom DeLay.

“God has spoken to me, I listen to God, and what I’ve heard is that I’m supposed to devote myself to rebuilding the conservative base of the Republican Party [by attempting to build a Republican version of Moveon.org], and I think we shouldn’t be underestimated.”

Note to Tom Delay, your colleagues aren’t God, and them removing you from your position as Majority Leader for ethics violations doesn’t mean they’re cutting you free to rub your dirty hands all over their base.

One more thing supporting a new party in power: the apperent Republican intention of granting millions of illegal aliens amnesty and citizenship so they can be promptly voted out of office.